🎯 Predicted PYQs — Inflation & Growth (Prelims 2026)
🎯 Predicted PYQs — Inflation & Growth (Prelims 2026)
With reference to the recent revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), consider the following statements:
- The base year of CPI-Combined has been revised from 2012 to 2024.
- The revision is based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24.
- The weight of food and beverages in the new CPI has increased compared to the earlier series.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
Consider the following statements:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) captures both goods and services, while the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) captures only goods.
- CPI includes indirect taxes, while WPI excludes them.
- The Wholesale Price Index is published by the National Statistics Office (NSO).
Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 1 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
Which of the following can cause "demand-pull inflation"?
- Expansionary monetary policy by the central bank
- Increase in fiscal stimulus by the government
- Inflation-indexing of wages
- Rising interest rates
Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1 and 2 only (c) 2, 3 and 4 (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4
With reference to India's Gross Domestic Product, consider the following statements:
- The current base year for calculating real GDP is 2011-12.
- The BN Goldar Committee has been tasked with revising the base year to 2022-23.
- India recently became the fourth largest economy in the world by nominal GDP, overtaking Japan.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 1 and 3 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
Consider the following pairs:
| Index | Published by |
|---|---|
| 1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) | NSO, MoSPI |
| 2. Index of Eight Core Industries | DPIIT, Min of Commerce |
| 3. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) | Reserve Bank of India |
Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
Consider the following effects of sustained high inflation in an economy:
- The real value of debt decreases, benefiting borrowers.
- Bondholders with fixed coupon payments benefit as real returns increase.
- Domestic exports become less competitive in international markets.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 3 only (b) 1 and 2 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
"Stagflation" in economics refers to a situation where: (a) Economic growth is rapid but prices remain stable (b) Both unemployment and inflation are falling simultaneously (c) High inflation coexists with stagnant economic growth and high unemployment (d) Deflation is accompanied by declining GDP and rising exports
With reference to India's Gross Value Added (GVA), consider the following:
- The tertiary sector contributes approximately 55% of GVA.
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is the largest component of GDP by expenditure method.
- GDP data in India is released by the Central Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3
Consider the following pairs:
| Curve | Relationship |
|---|---|
| 1. Phillips Curve | Inflation and unemployment |
| 2. Laffer Curve | Tax rates and tax revenue |
| 3. Kuznets Curve | Per capita income and life expectancy |
| 4. Lorenz Curve | Income inequality |
Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched? (a) 1, 2 and 4 only (b) 1, 2 and 3 only (c) 2, 3 and 4 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4
📝 ANSWERS & EXPLANATIONS
Q1 | CPI Base Year Revision (Current — HIGH PROBABILITY) Answer: (a) 1 and 2 only
- Statement 1: ✅ Base revised from 2012 to 2024.
- Statement 2: ✅ Based on HCES 2023-24.
- Statement 3: ❌ Food weight decreased — from ~46% to ~37%. Trap Used: Reversal trap — weight decreased, not increased.
Q2 | CPI vs WPI (Repeated Theme) Answer: (a) 1 and 2 only
- Statement 1: ✅ CPI = goods + services. WPI = goods only.
- Statement 2: ✅ CPI includes indirect taxes (market prices). WPI excludes them.
- Statement 3: ❌ WPI is published by Economic Advisor to DPIIT, Ministry of Commerce (not NSO). Trap Used: Publisher attribution error — NSO publishes CPI, DPIIT publishes WPI.
Q3 | Demand-Pull Inflation (Repeated 2021) Answer: (a) 1, 2 and 3 only
- Expansionary policy → more money → more demand ✅
- Fiscal stimulus → more govt spending → more demand ✅
- Wage-indexing → higher wages → higher purchasing power → more demand ✅
- Rising interest rates → reduces demand (contractionary) ❌ Trap Used: Rising interest rates is the trap option — it's contractionary, not inflationary.
Q4 | GDP Measurement (Conceptual) Answer: (d) 1, 2 and 3
- Statement 1: ✅ Current base year = 2011-12.
- Statement 2: ✅ BN Goldar Committee (ACNAS) tasked with base year revision to 2022-23.
- Statement 3: ✅ India overtook Japan — now 4th after US, China, Germany.
Q5 | Production Indices (Matching) Answer: (a) 1 and 2 only
- Pair 1: ✅ IIP by NSO, MoSPI.
- Pair 2: ✅ Core Industries by DPIIT.
- Pair 3: ❌ PMI is NOT by RBI — it's by S&P Global (private agency). Trap Used: Students assume government publishes all economic indices. PMI is private.
Q6 | Impact of Inflation (Application) Answer: (a) 1 and 3 only
- Statement 1: ✅ Inflation reduces real value of debt → benefits borrowers.
- Statement 2: ❌ Bondholders are HURT — fixed coupon loses real value as prices rise.
- Statement 3: ✅ Domestic goods become costlier → exports less competitive. Trap Used: Classic reversal — bondholders LOSE from inflation, not benefit.
Q7 | Stagflation (Definition) Answer: (c)
- Stagflation = simultaneous occurrence of high inflation + stagnant growth + high unemployment.
- It is an exception to the Phillips Curve (which predicts inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment).
Q8 | GVA Composition (Current) Answer: (a) 1 and 2 only
- Statement 1: ✅ Tertiary = ~55%, Secondary = ~25%, Primary = ~20%.
- Statement 2: ✅ PFCE = ~56% of GDP — largest component.
- Statement 3: ❌ GDP data is released by NSO under MoSPI (not Min of Finance). Trap Used: Ministry attribution — MoSPI, not MoF.
Q9 | Economic Curves (Matching — HIGH PROBABILITY) Answer: (a) 1, 2 and 4 only
- Pair 1: ✅ Phillips Curve = inflation vs unemployment.
- Pair 2: ✅ Laffer Curve = tax rates vs tax revenue.
- Pair 3: ❌ Per capita income and life expectancy = Preston Curve. Kuznets = income inequality and development (inverted-U).
- Pair 4: ✅ Lorenz Curve = graphical representation of income inequality. Trap Used: Kuznets confused with Preston — both deal with income but different Y-axes.